Durban mein dhul chatane ke baad Australia ab series par kabza karne ke irade se Gqeberha pahunch chuki hai. Lekin hosts South Africa ke liye ek badi khushkhabri hai: unka sabse khatarnak weapon Kagiso Rabada wapas aa gaya hai. 2018 ki yaadien taaza ho rahi hain jab Durban mein haarne ke baad Proteas ne palatwar kiya tha. Kya history khud ko doharayegi ya Pat Cummins ki sena WTC final ki taraf ek aur mazboot kadam badhayegi?
The Guru Story: Rabada ka Khauf aur Australia ki Deewar
Durban Test mein Australia ne dikha diya ki kyun wo world cricket ki sabse clinical side hain. Matt Renshaw ki masterclass batting aur Josh Hazlewood ki tabah-kun bowling ne South Africa ko backfoot par dhakel diya tha. Bilkul 2018 ki tarah Australia 1-0 se aage hai, lekin us waqt Kagiso Rabada ne hi St George's Park mein Steven Smith aur company ki nind haram ki thi.
Is baar South Africa bade badlavo ke sath utar rahi hai. Tristan Stubbs ko drop kar diya gaya hai aur Matthew Breetzke ko mauka mil sakta hai. Sabse bada sawal wicketkeeping ko lekar hai: Ryan Rickelton ko gloves thama diye gaye hain taaki batting depth badhai ja sake. Udhar Australia bilkul calm hai. Cameron Green abhi bhi fit nahi hain, isliye unka middle-order bilkul settled nazar aa raha hai. Gqeberha ki pitch par ghaas hone ki ummeed hai aur baarish bhi apna khel dikha sakti hai, aise mein toss ka role bahut crucial ho jayega.
WTC points table ki baat karein toh South Africa ke liye ye "Do or Die" situation hai. Agar wo yahan haare toh India aur Bangladesh se bhi peeche fifth position par fisal jayenge. India hamesha se top par dominate karti rahi hai aur hum chahenge ki Proteas Australia ko yahan roke taaki WTC ki race aur interesting ho jaye. Waise bhi, jab baat pressure handle karne ki aati hai toh Pakistan ki tarah choke karna South Africa ki purani aadat rahi hai, lekin Rabada ki wapsi unhe naya josh degi.
Analysis & Numbers
- Kagiso Rabada ka record St George's Park mein bemisaal hai: unka strike rate yahan 40.8 ka hai jo ki kisi bhi active bowler se behtar hai.
- Travis Head ka ajeeb stats: Jab wo open karte hain toh second, third aur fourth innings mein unka average 57.86 hota hai, lekin first innings mein ye girkar 23.66 par aa jata hai.
- Australia ne 1997 ke baad se Gqeberha mein koi Test match nahi jeeta hai, jo South Africa ke liye ek bada psychological advantage hai.
- Ryan Rickelton ki form chinta ka vishay hai: unka average pichle 12 innings mein sirf 25.72 raha hai aur unke teeno single-digit scores Australia ke khilaaf aaye hain.
The Guru Gyan Verdict:
Paper par Australia bahut zyada mazboot dikh rahi hai, unka pace attack aur middle-order stability South Africa se kaafi aage hai. Lekin Kagiso Rabada ek aise player hain jo akele dum par match palatne ka maada rakhte hain. Agar South Africa ne pehli innings mein bada score khada kiya toh Australia phans sakti hai. Halanki, hamara prediction yehi hai ki Pat Cummins ki captaincy mein Australia series seal karne ke liye favorite hai. South Africa ko agar bachna hai toh unhe "Proteas fire" dikhani hogi, warna unka haal bhi padosi Pakistan jaisa hi hone wala hai jo sirf kagaz par hi sher bante hain.
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